Overview / Semiconductor Supply Chain / Event Precedent Intelligence

Event Precedent Intelligence

Semantic search for comparable past events and outcome statistics.
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Query event
Saudi Arabia shuts East-West crude pipeline after drone attacks, no restart date given — matched against Gulf supply-disruption and infrastructure-attack precedents since 1985.
58
precedents found
Lookahead window
Median Return
+8.4%
Brent crude
Directional Agreement
66%
moved up within 30D
Reversion Rate
41%
fully reverted by 90D
Widest Case
+21.8%
1990 Gulf War

Distribution of 30-day outcomes

Across all 58 comparable precedents — not a single point estimate. Switch the lookahead window above to see how the distribution evolves over time.
-10%
-5%
0%
+5%
+10%
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+20%+
30-day return in Brent crude across 58 comparable events
Closest precedents · 30D outcome
1990 Gulf War: Iraqi invasion disrupts oil supply94% similar+21.8%
2019 Abqaiq-Khurais drone attacks91% similar+1.2%
2012 Hormuz tension, Iran sanctions85% similar+9.3%